Research Brief: Predicting New Criminal Convictions while on Parole—The Role of Offense Type 2019

January 1, 2020
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Research
Image of bar graph displaying Figure 1 one-year return to prison rate by type

Figure 1: Utah’s prison population: 2000-19

Research Question:

When controlling for relevant factors, does offense type play a part in predicting new criminal convictions while on parole?

This study examines the role of offense type on the likelihood of a new criminal conviction while on parole and examines the severity of the new criminal convictions that occurred.

Data:

  • 3,173 unique parole starts (between 2013-16)
  • Predictor variables: Demographics, offense type/severity, and risk-to-reoffend (LSI:RNR)
  • Outcome of interest: New criminal convictions (2-year follow-up time)

Methods:

  • Primary analysis: Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to identify the variables that are important in predicting a new criminal conviction while on parole

  • Secondary analysis: Examining the severity of the new criminal convictions that occurred (descriptively)

Image of bar graph displaying Figure 1 one-year return to prison rate by type
Image of figure 2 hazard ratios with error-bands

Limitations

  • Quasi-experimental design
  • Relationship between technical violations and new crimes is complex
  • Low re-conviction rate (13%)

Policy makers should compare the likelihood and severity of a particular offense to re-occur when finding the appropriate balance between sentence type and length while taking into consideration society’s values and expectations as they relate to justice, public safety, and resource allocation.

Policy Considerations

Policy makers should compare the likelihood and severity of a particular offense to re-occur when finding the appropriate balance between sentence type and length while taking into consideration society’s values and expectations as they relate to justice, public safety, and resource allocation.

Read the full research brief:

Parole Recidivism & Offense Type