Utah Prison Projections Project
2026 forecast update
Utah’s prison population reached 6,681 in 2026 Q2. The updated five-year forecast projects about 7,423 by 2031 Q2, an average of 2.1% growth per year.
The Utah Prison Projection Project is a collaboration between the Utah Department of Corrections and the Utah Department of Criminal Justice. It produces a Utah-specific forecast of the prison population to support resource planning.
What the new forecast shows
The five-year projection anticipates the population growing from 6,681 to approximately 7,423 — an increase of about 742 people, or 11% over the horizon. The average annual change of 2.1% represents underlying population pressures outlined in the report with higher severity inmates, continued growth in the sex offense population, and longer expected length of stays.
Figure 1
Current and projected average daily population
- Scale: 0 to 7,423 people. Bars begin at zero, so the visible difference is the 11% increase.
An increase of about 742 people over five years, averaging 2.1% per year.
View the data for Figure 1
| Period | Average daily population | Change from 2026 Q2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 (actual) | 6,681 | — |
| 2031 Q2 (projected) | 7,423 | +742 (11%) |
Quarterly projections for the full horizon, separate male and female series, and benchmarking against the Department of Corrections’ capacity thresholds are all available in the dashboard.
How the forecast is built
Utah developed its forecasting framework through a review of the national literature and consultation with local expertise and selected states, examining what has worked and what has not in prison projection work elsewhere. That review guided which forecasting methods were tested against Utah data.
The analytical process begins with descriptive analysis to identify trends, seasonal variation, and irregular patterns in historical quarterly data from 2010 Q1 through 2026 Q2. The model then uses a two-step approach accounting for major shifts in the population, including those following the Justice Reinvestment Initiative and the COVID-19 pandemic. Weighted model forecasts are used to develop projection scenarios. Male and female populations are modeled separately, and the final forecast is the sum of the two.
Each year, model performance is assessed by comparing prior projections with observed population outcomes, and the results are used to inform updates to the projections.
Forecasting involves uncertainty. These figures illustrate how the prison population may change if current law, policy, and practices remain generally consistent. They do not account for significant future legislative or policy changes. Because future population trends are uncertain, the UPPP project presents a range of scenarios in its Capacity Report rather than a single point estimate and updates the forecasts as new data become available.
Explore the dashboard
The data tool is organized into five areas:
- Overview — population snapshots and net admissions over time.
- Projections — five-year quarterly forecasts through 2031 Q2 with downloadable tables, plus separate male and female series.
- Trends — average daily population by primary offense type and by offense severity, and net admissions by offense degree.
- Capacity — current and projected population against operational, emergency, and absolute maximum capacity.
- Methodology — full documentation of data sources, model specification, and projection methods.