Summary:
Decades of research have demonstrated a systemic and nationwide presence of racial and ethnic disparities in the United States’ criminal justice system.
- The sources of these disparities have commonly been attributed to (1) differences in the type and rate of criminal behaviors, (2) unequal treatment across groups, and (3) a combination of the two. Furthermore, differential treatment by systems and structurally built-in criminal justice inputs and algorithms can unintentionally result in disparities across different racial and ethnic groups.
Research Question:
While controlling for relevant factors, is there a difference in the likelihood of receiving a prison recommendation at the Pre-sentence investigation (PSI) level by race-ethnicity?
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The Sentencing Matrix:
Data & Summary Statistics:
- Overall, 19 percent of the PSI reports involved a prison recommendation, which differed by group (Hispanic: 27%, “Other”: 22%, White: 18%, and “Unknown”: 6%).
Why Statistical Modeling?
Statistical models can help us understand whether group differences are present after we control for factors believed to affect our outcome of interest.
Results
- Criminal History: For criminal history category III, 26 percent of PSI’s involving a Hispanic individual can be expected to include a prison recommendation. This is reduced to 18 percent for Whites.
- Property Offenses: In comparison to PSI reports involving Whites, Hispanics are more likely to receive a prison recommendation for a property related offense (22% vs. 15%).
- Alcohol & Drug Offenses: Similarly, Hispanics are more likely than Whites to receive a prison recommendation for an alcohol & drug related offense (25% vs. 17%).
Moving Forward
- Analyzing the role that mitigating and aggravating factors may play in explaining these differences in outcomes is an important first step in better understanding these disparities.
Further Examine:
- Aggravating and Mitigating Factors
- To what extent do these factors influence differences in outcomes across racial-ethnic groups?
- An individual’s socio-economic status is tied to some of these factors, which are further linked to racial-ethnic groups
- The Criminal History scoring algorithm
- Examine its inputs
Read the full report:
Study Dashboard
Race & the PSI Recommendation Study
A recommendation of either probation, jail, or prison is based on an individual’s criminal history score, and the severity and type of their most recent offense. Additionally, the individual’s mitigating/aggravating factors are taken into consideration.